TRANSrisk – Transitions pathways and risk analysis for climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies

realization time: 09.2015 - 12.2018

TRANSrisk is a research project financed by EU Horizon 2020 program. As part of TRANSrisk IBS is collaborating with several acclaimed european research institutes, including University of Sussex, Cambridge Econometrics, University of Graz and National Technical University of Athens (NTUA).

The objective of the project is to understand the risks, uncertainties and co-effects related to different climate change mitigation pathways as well as public acceptance (or lack thereof) of low-carbon technology options. TRANSrisk aims to create a novel assessment framework for analyzing costs and benefits of transition pathways. The framework will integrate well-established approaches to modeling the costs of resilient, low-carbon pathways with a wider interdisciplinary approach including risk assessments. In addition TRANSrisk aims to design a decision support tool that will help policy makers to better understand uncertainties and risks and enable them to include risk assessments into more robust policy design.


This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 under grant agreement no 642260.

Piotr Lewandowski
coordination, modelling, case studies:
Jan Witajewski-Baltvilks
modelling, case studies:
Marek Antosiewicz
stakeholder engagement, case studies:
Aleksander Szpor, Andrzej Ceglarz
case studies:
Jakub Sawulski, Baiba Witajewska-Baltvilka, Marcin Gałczyński, Robert Zajdler

University of Susses (UOS), BC3 Basque Centre for Climate Change, Cambridge Econometrics Limited, Stichting Energieonderzoek Centrum Nederland, Eidgenoessische Technische Hochschule Zuerich, Stichting Joint Impementation Network, Stiftelsen the Stockholm Environment Institute, Universitaet Graz, University of Piraeus Research Center, National technical University of Athens, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile

IBS research at COP24
We presented our research at COP24 in Katowice on the Polish coal industry, low-emissions transformation pathways, and energy poverty.
Risks associated with the decarbonisation of the Polish power system
Decarbonisation pathway will involve higher costs than the baseline pathway, but the electricity sector will emit half the CO2 by 2050. Read the key findings from the IBS report and seminar (28.11.).
Final TRANSrisk event
On November 6, in Brussels, TRANSrisk consortium organised policy lunch entitled ‘Paris in Practice: Understanding the Risks and Uncertainties’.
How to subsidise green technologies?
Jan Witajewski-Baltvilks presented his research conducted within TRANSrisk project at the 33rd Annual Congress of the European Economic Association (EEA).
Macroeconomic simulations for the Chilean economy
At the TRANSrisk workshop in Santiago (Chile) Marek Antosiewicz gave a presentation about simulating the macroeconomic effects of climate change mitigation policies (24.08.).
EU4Energy Policy Forum
On June 26 in Kyrgystan, Aleksander Szpor presented the Polish case study of coal transition.
WCERE 2018 & EMEE 2018
Green innovation, economic growth and renewable energy sources were the topics of Jan Witajewski-Baltvilks and Marek Antosiewicz presentations at WCERE conference and EMEE workshop.
Risks of low-carbon transition in Poland
On October 12 in Warsaw we will organise an international seminar on risks associated with different transition pathways in Polish energy sector.
2017 International Energy Workshop
Jan Witajewski-Baltvilks presened the model about green innovation and economic growth.
23rd Annual EAERE Conference
This year the Annual Conference of the European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists took place in Athens on June 28 – July 1, 2017.
2017 AERE Annual Summer Conference
Aleksander Szpor and Jan Witajewski-Baltvilks presented their research on the costs of low carbon transition and green innovation and economic growth.
TRANSrisk Mid-Project Workshop
The TRANSrisk Mid-Project Workshop, organised by the Science Policy Research Unit of the University of Sussex, was held in Brussels on 7-8 March.
Innovation system for offshore wind farms in Poland
We have started to develop the Technological Innovation System (TIS) for offshore wind farms in Poland.
How to engage stakeholders in the modelling of the low-carbon transition?
IBS and its partners in the TRANSrisk project consortium examine how pathways towards a low-emission future can be achieved within the domestic context of countries.
Transition to low-carbon economy
What are the risks associated with a low-carbon transition? First results of the country case studies within the TRANSrisk project – report for thr European Commission.
2018-12-31 Green Innovation And Economic Growth In A North-South Model
authors:    /   / 
If one region of the world switches its research effort from dirty to clean technologies, will other regions follow? To investigate this question we built a North-South model that combines insights from directed technological change and quality ladder endogenous growth models. We allow researchers in ...
2018-11-28 Risks associated with the decarbonisation of the Polish power sector
authors:    /   /   /   /   /   /   /   / 
The Polish power sector currently stands at a crossroads, facing two alternative pathways. First, the decarbonisation pathway with radical CO2 emissions reduction, which involves a fast phase-down of coal. Second, the baseline pathway that abandons emission reduction targets, and involves a slow coal phase-down. Both ...
2018-09-26 Green Growth and Taste Heterogeneity
authors:    / 
The recent contributions in directed technological change theory show that technological progress in clean industries (i.e. industries which do no produce CO2 emissions) lead to emission decline only if clean and dirty goods are sufficiently substitutable. The result raises a question whether a government could ...
2018-09-19 A review of the offshore wind innovation system in Poland
authors:    /   /   / 
In recent years offshore wind has become one of the fastest growing forms of renewable energy technology worldwide. Nevertheless, there are still several markets with large potential for deployment. In this paper we assess the offshore wind innovation system in Poland. We apply the Technological ...
2018-09-14 Political parties and climate change policy: why do parties sometimes talk about it, but sometimes keep silent
authors:    / 
The paper studies the factors that shape party issue competition on climate change and environmentalism. It covers the quantitative study on political parties' positions in 22 European countries during electoral campaigns between 1990 and 2016, as well as two case studies: Polish electoral campaign in ...
2018-01-22 Optimal RES differentiation under technological uncertainty
authors:    /   / 
Should Renewable Energy Sources (RES) auction systems support development of a wide range of different technologies or instead focus on supporting a select few? We review some of the approaches to RES technologies differentiation in relation to RES auction designs. Subsequently, we use an analytical ...
2018-01-18 Structural analysis of the offshore wind innovation system in Poland
authors:    / 
The paper is a the preliminary evaluation of the offshore wind innovation system in Poland. The analysis is based on the Technology Innovation System concept. The paper includes the two first steps of the procedure: the structural analysis and the technology stage of development analysis. ...
persons from IBS
Piotr Lewandowski
president of the board
see more
Marek Antosiewicz
see more
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