Crowding (out) the retirees? RDD application to raising effective retirement age in Poland

27 January 2015

As of 2007 increased labor force participation of the elderly has been observed in Poland. In 2009 a reform in the eligibility criteria narrowed the scope of early retirement opportunities for majority of the occupations. We rely on Polish LFS and employ regression discontinuity design to isolate and evaluate the causal effect of the changes in eligibility criteria on labor force participation and exit to retirement of the affected cohorts. We find a statistically significant, but economically small discontinuity at the timing of the reform. The placebo test shows no similar effects in earlier or later quarters. Yet, the pure treatment effects are insignificant in vast majority of the specification. Our conclusions are thus as follows: the changes in the eligibility criteria were not instrumental in fostering the participation rates among the affected cohort, i.e. the immediate contribution to increased labor force participation of these cohorts is not economically large.

keywords: retirement age, early retirement, regression discontinuity, Poland
JEL codes: 
publication year: 2015
language: english
Publications category:  ,
publishing series: IBS Working Paper
publication number: 03/2015
ISSN: 2451-4373
Additional information:

This paper was supported by the IBS Small Grant for a Research Paper within the Jobs and Development Network programme.

Projects related to this publication:

University of Warsaw, National Bank of Poland

Warsaw School of Economics, National Bank of Poland

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