This paper studies the relationship between occupational experiences and return intentions of Ukrainian war refugees in Poland, following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Using country-wide, online surveys conducted in 2022 and 2023, we show that refugees’ high employment rate co-exists with widespread occupational downgrading and job task degradation. Refugees transitioning to lower-skilled jobs after arriving in Poland faced stark increases in routine task intensity (RTI), often equivalent to shifts from managerial to clerical roles. Even those retaining their occupational categories experienced heightened RTI, signalling underutilisation of skills. We find a significant relationship between such task degradation and return intentions: refugees subjected to greater task degradation were more likely to plan to return to Ukraine by 2023, particularly those who initially, in 2022, intend to stay in Poland. This relationship persists even after accounting for earnings and occupational downgrading. These findings underscore the role of job content in shaping migration decisions and highlight implications for host countries’ labour market policies and refugee integration strategies.
We thank the participants of the “Return and Integration Prospects of Ukrainian Refugees” workshop in Nuremberg for their helpful comments. The paper uses data collected in a survey financially supported by the International Organization for Migration. Usual disclaimers apply. All errors are ours.
