This paper studies the relationship between war refugees’ job task routinization in the destination country and revisions of their return intentions. Using a panel survey of Ukrainian refugees in Poland collected in 2022–2023, we document substantial task routinization, namely an increase in worker-level routine task intensity relative to jobs held pre-displacement, among both refugees who transition to lower-skilled occupations and those who retain their pre-displacement occupational status. Guided by a framework in which task routinization may reduce skill utilisation and job satisfaction, we show that refugees experiencing larger routinization are significantly more likely to express intentions to return to Ukraine by 2023, particularly those who initially did not intend to return, and less likely to plan to settle in Poland. This relationship persists after controlling for earnings and occupational downgrading. Our findings suggest that job content, beyond employment status and earnings, helps explain how refugees reassess their prospects in the host country and revise return intentions.
We thank Cevat Giray Aksoy and the participants of the “Return and Integration Prospects of Ukrainian Refugees” workshop in Nuremberg for their helpful comments. The paper uses data collected in a survey financially supported by the International Organization for Migration. Usual disclaimers apply. All errors are ours.
