This paper studies how job task routinization shapes return intentions of Ukrainian war refugees in Poland following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Using two waves of nationwide survey data from 2022 and 2023 with worker-level measures of job tasks, we document widespread occupational downgrading accompanied by substantial task routinization, namely an increase in routine task intensity (RTI) as compared to jobs held pre-displacement. Task routinization is substantial among both refugees who transition to lower-skilled occupations and those who nominally retain their pre-war occupational status. Guided by a framework in which task routinization reduces skill utilisation and job satisfaction, we show that refugees experiencing larger RTI increases are significantly more likely to plan a return to Ukraine by 2023, particularly those who initially intended to stay. This relationship persists after controlling for earnings and occupational downgrading and is confirmed using an instrumental-variable strategy. Our findings suggest that job content, beyond employment status and earnings, plays a central role in refugee integration and return decisions.
We thank Cevat Giray Aksoy and the participants of the “Return and Integration Prospects of Ukrainian Refugees” workshop in Nuremberg for their helpful comments. The paper uses data collected in a survey financially supported by the International Organization for Migration. Usual disclaimers apply. All errors are ours.
