The adoption of the pan-European goal of the energy sector decarbonization by 2050 (climate neutrality) will bring about significant shifts in employment in the Polish mining industry.
Retirement and limiting the inflow of new employees is a reasonable and acceptable form of just transition that could prevent downsizing. Coal regions and miners await a political decision on a fixed date of coal phase out. These are the main conclusions of the first analyzes of employment in the coal mining industry in the Upper Silesia.
IBS experts developed four scenarios for employment change. In the achieving climate neutrality scenario, beyond the employment reduction through natural outflow, it is crucial to control the number of people obtaining mining qualifications. A gradual shift towards a low-carbon energy sector will not lead to downsizing and competency gaps in the mining industry.
The project is funded by a grant from the European Climate Foundation
The assumptions made in the analyzes depend on decarbonisation scenarios. IBS experts are currently relying on unofficial decarbonisation, taking into account their limitations. As new data and official scenarios become available, IBS will update its mining employment forecasts. The analysis was based on data obtained from the Industrial Development Agency in Katowice, mining companies and supplemented with data from the Statistics Poland.
Institute for Structural Research (IBS), Institute of Philosophy and Sociology Polish Academy of Sciences