Will the Polish pension system go bankrupt?

15 May 2019

How will the rapid ageing of the population affect pension expenditure in Poland? Jakub Sawulski, Iga Magda and Piotr Lewandowski show that pension expenditure will remain at a level similar to now until 2060. The most important factor preventing an increase in pension expenditure will be a drop in the level of pension benefits. The average replacement rate (the ratio between a person’s first pension and their last salary) will fall by more than double in Poland, which will be the largest fall among all EU countries. 

keywords: pension system, pensions, public finance
JEL codes: 
publication year: 2019
language: polishenglish
Publications category:  ,
publishing series: IBS Policy Paper
publication number: 02/2019
ISSN: 2451-4365
Additional information:

We would like to thank Jan Rutkowski for his helpful comments and remarks. The content of this publication reflects the opinions of the authors, which may diverge from the position of the Institute for Structural Research. The usual disclaimers apply. Independent study based on UN and Eurostat data. These institutions are not liable for the presented results and conclusions.


Institute for Structural Research (IBS), Warsaw School of Economics (SGH)

Institute for Structural Research (IBS)

Institute for Structural Research (IBS)

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