Will they quit smoking or switch products? Potential effects of changes to excise duty rates

2 December 2025
abstract:

Problem:
High consumption of nicotine products generates significant social costs. An increase in excise duty on individual products may have a limited impact on consumption if consumers are switching between products.
Main message:
The September 2025 excise increase on e-cigarettes significantly altered product choices but only moderately reduced the number of nicotine consumers. A substantial reduction in the consumer base requires simultaneous excise increases across all products. There is scope for stronger public education policies, as many users underestimate the harms of alternative products.

keywords: Nicotine consumption, excise tax
JEL codes: 
publication year: 2025
language: english
Publications category:  ,
publishing series: IBS Policy Paper
publication number: 04/2025
ISSN: 2451-4365
Additional information:

The authors would like to thank Łukasz Balwicki, Bartosz Jusypenko, Nora Kungl, Kristijan Fidanovski, Hana Ross and Jan Rutkowski for their valuable comments.
This publication was produced as part of a project funded by the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw). wiiw is a partner of Bloomberg Philanthropies’ Initiative to Reduce Tobacco Use.
The content of this publication reflects the views of the authors and does not necessarily represent the position of the Institute for Structural Research. The usual disclaimers apply.

authors:

Institute for Structural Research (IBS)

Institute for Structural Research (IBS), IZA, RWI

Institute for Structural Research

Institute for Structural Research

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