We examine business creation by Ukrainian refugees in Poland following the Russian invasion. We find that Ukrainians started 38,833 firms in 2022–23, accounting for 7% of all registrations. Our survey shows that 58% of post-invasion Ukrainian founders are refugees, and cross-county regressions show that a 10% increase in adult male Ukrainian refugees is associated with a 2.7% increase in Ukrainian firm registrations. We then show that new Ukrainian businesses stimulate Polish entrepreneurship. Using a shift-share strategy based on refugee shocks and Ukrainians’ comparative advantage, we find that a 10% increase in Ukrainian registrations led to 2.3% more Polish firms.
We thank Yonatan Berman, Ralph De Haas, Daniele Girardi, Krzysztof Krakowski, Ian Levely, Anna Maria Mayda, Sarah Necker, Cem Özgüzel, Abu Siddique, and Nicolas van de Sijpe for their comments. We also thank participants at the WeLaR Workshop in Warsaw, EBRD, 2024 Migration and Organization Workshop at Wharton, GATE Workshop in St-Étienne, CReAM/RWI Workshop in Essen, ifo Institute Workshop on Ukrainian Refugees in Nuremberg, U of Sheffield, King’s econ brownbag, WB Migration and Development Conference in Bologna, Keio University, Panthéon-Sorbonne, RFBerlin, U of Stavanger, U of Padova, Azim Premji in Bhopal, and at the Athens University of Economics and Business for feedback.
We also thank Eliza Przeździecka (UNHCR Representation in Poland), Iryna Hapii (Fundacja Innowacja i Wiedza), and Joanna Surwiłło (International Rescue Committee) for helping us to disseminate the survey of Ukrainian firms. We also thank Daniel Macyszyn of rejestr.io and analysts at the EBRD and IBS for all their help.
King’s College London (KCL)
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD)
