WelcomeWelcome to the website of the Institute for Structural Research (IBS) - an independent research foundation, which aim is to conduct and support research in the fields of economy, mathematics and applied IT.
We encourage you to take a look at our activities and read about the projects we carried out.
Employment in Poland 2010
Employment in Poland 2010 - integration and globalisation is the sixth edition of the Employment in Poland series. This time the focus is on European integration, understood as a project meant to increase European social and economic welfare in the increasingly strong network of global ties.
In the first Part we evaluate the realisation of Lisbon Strategy in the EU countries. We discuss sources of the increasing discrepancies between their labour markets, and the relative position of Poland. We study the differences in economic growth rates and developments in the labour markets of EU27 with respect to the USA, and examine the reasons why Europe has lagged in terms of productivity growth. We discuss the feasibility of Poland converging to the level of EU15 and USA, taking into account the current strategic context, defined by Europe 2020 and Poland 2030 documents.
In the second part, we concentrate on the mobility of Europeans, international migration within the continent and inflows of external migrants. We evaluate the openness of the individual labour markets the EU to foreign workers, patterns of changes in internal migration, cross border commuting, and the economic effects of the increased openness of Europe to migrants from third countries. We analyse the return migration and discuss its potential for levelling development differences within the EU. We assess the impact of EU regulations on migration processes, confronting European achievements with the experiences of other developed countries, especially the US.
The third part is dedicated to foreign direct investment in Poland and Central Europe. Due to the export-oriented nature of many investments of multinational corporations in Europe, we analyse the impact of trade on the labour markets of EU Member States and productivity at the sectoral level. We study how the spatial FDI distribution depends on the expected benefits from trade, and scrutinise general patterns in FDI inflow and stock to Central European countries. We analyse the determinants of FDI at NUTS2 level in Poland, using econometric modelling and in-depth interviews with the representatives of enterprises and local officials. We also estimate the institutional and structural factors behind the FDI distribution in different parts of Central Europe.
In the last part we discuss the local aspects and effects of globalisation. We analyse how the production and employment structures in the economies of the developed North (including Central Europe) and the developing South are influenced by globalisation, at national and local level. We are particularly interested in the inclusion of Poland and Central Europe to the European network of economic ties. We isolate areas in which globalisation adopts different shape, and we analyse the causes of these differences. Then we focus on sectors exceptionally influenced by globalisation: the automotive industry, steel industry, textiles and clothing, and business services that are susceptible to offshoring, including R&D, and study these developments in Poland and foreign countries.
The report is completed with conclusions and policy recommendations, focusing around the issues of growth policy and regional policy, so those aspects of public policy that are particularly predisposed to tackling the challenges that globalisation poses for the labour market.
Analysis of "The Risk of Carbon Leakage in Poland"
We present an analysis of the publication by professor Krzysztof ¯mijewski, published by the Eugeniusz Kwiatkowski Institute in March 2011. The purpose of the paper On "The Risk of Carbon Leakage in Poland" - prepared for Climate Action Network Europe - is a critical review of the publication "The Risk of Carbon Leakage in Poland". This brief report discusses the potential risks of de-industrialisation in Poland if the EU climate policy is continued in its current form and scope. We scrutinise the assumptions of The Risk... , its methodology and conclusions. We also discuss some of the issues that were omitted from the paper despite their importance in the estimation of medium and long term economic consequences of the greenhouse gas reduction policies.
In this paper we show that the employment impact of carbon leakage, as predicted by professor ¯mijewski, should be treated with great reserve, as the assumptions and methodology he used are so simplified that they cannot guarantee reliable and objective results not open to controversy. On the other hand, we emphasize that The Risk... correctly identifies the problem of a limited information base, insufficient for a thorough analysis of the reality and scale of the risk of carbon leakage. Professor ¯mijewski is right to point out that the problem of carbon leakage requires additional and impartial analyses, both for Poland and the entire European Union. Particularly accurate is his observation that the problem of carbon leakage is primarily local and in this field only a very limited analysis is available for the EU and Poland in particular.
Working for Equity in Health
IBS participates as a partner in an EU PROGRESS Project Working for Equity in Health, concerning health inequalities. The project is co-financed by the European Commission (Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities DG).
The project aims to explore the relationship between work, worklessness and social protection as social determinants of health inequalities, with an assets based approach. In particular the project will:
- Raise awareness of health inequalities with those working at EU, MS and regional level working on the growth and development, anti-discrimination, and social protection agendas and their role in relation to health inequalities.
- Identify effective practice in work, worklessness and social protection to help to address health inequalities. These findings will be disseminated through networks by EuroHealthNet.
- Draw together the knowledge base on what works to tackle health inequalities, in areas such as work and health, back to work schemes and minimising the harmful effects of worklessness.
- Contribute to the development of health inequalities strategies across Europe, making a timely contribution to the WHO European review on social determinants of health.
We present the results of the analysis conducted by IBS in the work team for the social problem of the Trilateral Commission, devoted to proposals for government changes in the pension system. We evaluate the macroeconomic assumptions adopted by the government, comparing the effect on the amount of pensions and replacement rates of different variants of changes in the pension system (to maintain the status quo, permanent or temporary reduction in the pension funds, raising the limit of two options for pension funds invest in shares). We propose a variant of intermediate - lower premiums in 2011-2014 as proposed by the government and determine contributions to pension funds at 5 percent since 2015. Effect of different variants on retirement, we analyse, as the government, for a hypothetical person earning the constant average wage in the economy, and - what is new - for various socio-demographic groups (distinguished by gender and education) with a realistic career path.
The full analysis is available here, and its summary here.
World Bank report
We recommend a report published by the World Bank Transition to a Low Emission Economy in Poland, on economically optimal climate policy in the Polish conditions. The report was prepared using the IBS expertise Large scale, multisector DSGE model as a climate policy assessment tool, in which the authors have evaluated the potential to reduce emissions and impact on the economy in the years 2010-2030 of a comprehensive package of climate policy. The analysis covered assessment of the impact on GDP, value added, employment, the sectoral structure of production and level of prosperity. Beside the analysis of the entire package the article gives an assessment of alternative options for one of the major, and also the most widely discussed, components of the climate package, which are investments in the energy sector. All assessments were made using the especially constructed for this purpose a structural model of the Polish economy MEMO (Mitigation Options Macroeconomic Model for Poland).
A full version of the report, a summary of the report and annexes are available.
Seminar under the project "Lubelskie Voivodeship 2020"
On Tuesday, 22 February 2011, in the hotel Campanile (14/16 Lubomelska Street, Lublin) second consultative seminar took place. The first results of research conducted in the project Lubelskie Voivodeship 2020 have been presented and discuseed. The program of the seminar is available here.
We recommend a report published by the World Bank Transition to a Low Emission Economy in Poland, on economically optimal climate policy in the Polish conditions. The report was prepared using the IBS expertise L Large scale, multisector DSGE model as a climate policy assessment tool, in which the authors have evaluated the potential to reduce emissions and impact on the economy in the years 2010-2030 of a comprehensive package of climate policy. The analysis covered assessment of the impact on GDP, value added, employment, the sectoral structure of production and level of prosperity. Beside the analysis of the entire package the article gives an assessment of alternative options for one of the major, and also the most widely discussed, components of the climate package, which are investments in the energy sector. All assessments were made using the especially constructed for this purpose a structural model of the Polish economy MEMO (Mitigation Options Macroeconomic Model for Poland).
A full version of the report, a summary of the report and annexes are available.
Climate Policy - harm or help for the economy?
As part of the series IBS Working Papers we present an article Large scale, multisector DSGE model as a climate policy assessment tool. The authors evaluate the potential to reduce emissions and impact on the economy both in the years 2010-2030 of a comprehensive package of climate policy. In this way the Institute for Structural Research involves in carried out in Poland and Europe debate on the EU strategy for 2020, in which climate policy occupies a central position. Considered in the paper package was drawn up based on the package presented in the report of the Institute of McKinsey Fri "Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Abatement Potential in Poland by 2030" and includes about 120 different "leverage" technology included in such areas as: (1) energy efficiency, (2) fuel efficiency, (3) investment in production technologies nonbroadcast electricity (4) CCS, (5) optimization of the manufacturing process in the chemical industry, and (6) changes in agricultural production technology. Macroeconomic impact of each technology separately and the entire package together are analyzed by assuming various options of financing of the public contribution to its implementation - VAT, personal income tax, reduction of public consumption or reduction in transfers. The analysis includes assessment of the impact on GDP, added value, employment, the sectoral structure of production and level of prosperity. Its important part is to build a macro version of marginal cost curves, emission reductions (MacroMAC curves), showing a kind of hierarchy to build instruments of climate policy that takes into account not only the direct cost of their implementation and potential emission, but also the impact they have on the economy at the macro level. Importantly, as shown in the article, the character of these curves depends not only on the component package under consideration technological tools, but also from a time perspective of its implementation and its financing sources, and thus choose the most promising instrument for climate policy must be multifaceted choice that takes into account both technical as financial and fiscal aspect. The analysis of the entire package in the article is an assessment of alternative options for a major, and also the most widely discussed, the components of the climate package, we are investing in the energy sector. All assessments were made using the especially constructed for this purpose a structural model of the Polish economy MEMO (Mitigation Options Macroeconomic Model for Poland), which is a multi-sector DSGE model supplemented by a large-scale tools to help in the form of: (i) the financial investment decision-assessment module MIND (Microeconomic Investment Decision module) and (ii) the construction of the econometric module reference scenario BAU (Business As Usual module). Full version of the article in English is available here. This article is part of a wider project carried out by the World Bank "Country Economic Memorandum: Transition to a Low Carbon Economy in Poland", which final results will be presented in autumn. Its part is a presentation Modelling transition to a low carbon economy with large scale DSGE model of Canada.
iSWORD
On 1 September 2010 we started an innovative project with transnational component called "Innovative Toolbox for Regulatory Impact Assessment and Public Investment Decisions - iSWORD". This project is co-financed by the European Union through the European Social Fund.
In the near future there will be a special web page available that will provide information about the progress of our work and describe the results - final products. So far, for more information please click here.
Employment in Poland 2008 - Work over the life course
It is with great pleasure that we present the fourth edition of Employment in Poland: Employment in Poland 2008 - Work over the life course.
In this edition we address the issue of work across the lifespan which, in the face of the ongoing demographic changes and population ageing, is a key problem for the future of Poland and Europe.
We discuss the impact of demographic changes on the labour market and examine what policy adjustments are required in order to counter the negative effects of population ageing on the economy and to ensure the stability of the age structure in Poland in the long term.
In the report we present long-term projections of labour market indicators and basic macroeconomic variables. The forecasts demonstrate the various possible institutional responses to problems caused by population ageing in the fields of labour market policy, social policy and immigration policy.
We focus on the marginal age groups of labour market participants, i.e. youth below 24 and the elderly above 54, presenting the results of an experiment investigating the scale of age and gender discrimination in the Polish labour market. The recognition of the obstacles that the analysed age groups encounter in the labour market is crucial for shaping public policies geared at increasing their labour market participation.
The analysis of mutual relations between institutions, cultural background, labour market situation of women and demographic developments is an important element
of the report. We discuss a mix of public policies which will best counteract gender discrimination in the labour market, improve male and female participation and raise the fertility rate.
In the end we focus on individual choices related to education and enhancing one's skills across a lifespan.
The report concludes with recommendations presenting a coherent vision of a public policy which would adequately respond to demographic challenges and labour market problems looming on the horizon.
The publication is available here.
IBS invites experts to cooperation within the EuropeAid project
Institute for Structural Research, as a partner in consortium, carries out an international project participated by experienced experts. It consists in advising decision-makers from chosen countries and/or consulting reforms' implementation as well as changes in policies. Its range covers macroeconomics, statistics and public finances management. More details available here.
Ex-ante assessment of the National Strategy for Regional Development
A conference, dedicated to conclusions and recommendations resulting from presented in an ex-ante evaluation analysis of the National Strategy for Regional Development 2010-2020: Regions, Cities, Rural Areas, was held in Warsaw, April 1st 2010. During the conference IBS presented the most important assumptions of the prepared ex-ante assessment. More details are available on the news site of the Ministry of Regional Development.
Analysis of the impact of investments in social infrastructure on Silesia voivodeship's economic growth
The report from the research Analysis of the impact of investments in social infrastructure on Silesia voivodeship's economic growth is available here.
Varmia and Masuria 2020 - growth scenarios and prognostic simulation tool kit
Within the project two reports were prepared: Analysis of the condition and SME's section development directions in the Varmia and Masuria voivodeship and Analysis of the changes in the macroeconomic environment of the Varmia and Masuria voivodeship in the period of 1995-2008
IBS Policy Papers
With the paper Changes in the new pension system vs public debt and deficit - problem identification and ways out, prapared by PhD Maciej Bukowski, PhD Agnieszka Ch³oñ-Domiñczak and Professor Marek Góra we inaugurate the series of short papers dedicated to particular problems of socio-economic policy and formulating well-considered, precise suggestions of their solution.
In practice, Poland's public debate often lacks the moment of deeper thought on a particular issue as well as systematized consideration of its possible solutions. Works from the IBS Policy Papers series assume taking up difficult topics which solutions should be the subject of social agreement and which complexity precludes from formulating simple, universal formulas. We hope that the series will provide not only with objective problem diagnosis but the solutions suggested by us become the sources of inspiration for all the readers.
Be welcome to read the first of the papers from the series, dedicated to ardently discussed lately changes in the pension system.
Impact of cohesion policy realization on forming main indicators of strategic papers - National Development Plan 2004-2006 and National Cohesion Strategy 2007-2013 as well as other chosen macroeconomic indicators at regional and country's level
The first part of the annual report within the project Impact of cohesion policy realization on forming main indicators of strategic papers - National Development Plan 2004-2006 and National Cohesion Strategy 2007-2013 as well as other chosen macroeconomic indicators at regional and country's level came out.
Identification and delimitation of problematic and strategic intervention areas in Poland
A report summarizing the research project that has been realised together by the Institute for Structural Research and Department of Supra-Regional Programmes of the Ministry of Regional Development was publicized. Within the work a diagnosis of Poland's regional diversity was presented as well as an original author's idea to separate probematic and strategic intervention areas. Results of the analyses will constitute crucial substantial contribution to the currently emerging Country's Regional Development Strategy for 2010-2020.
Lesser Poland 2020 - growth scenarios and prognostic simulation tool kit
Website within the project Lesser Poland 2020 - growth scenarios and prognostic simulation tool kit is already available here: malopolska2020.pl.
Assessment of the benefits drawn by EU-15 countries as a result of cohesion policy implementation in Poland
On our site you can find a new report (Polish version) "Assessment of the benefits drawn by EU-15 countries as a result of cohesion policy implementation in Poland" prepared for Ministry of Regional Development.
Varmia and Masuria 2020 - growth scenarios and prognostic simulation tool kit
Website of our project Varmia and Masuria 2020 - growth scenarios and prognostic simulation tool kit is already available here: warmiaimazury2020.pl.
Selection of a contractor for conducting survey of small and medium-sized enterprises in Varmia and Masuria voivodeship
On February 23rd 2009 the commission gathered for selection of a contractor for conducting survey of small and medium-sized enterprises in the Varmia and Masuria voivodeship within the project Varmia and Masuria 2020 - growth scenarios and prognostic simulation tool kit. Taking into consideration accepted price and merits' criteria, from the offers sent to the Institute was chosen the one of ASM - Market Research and Analysis Centre Ltd.
The Institute for Structural Research awarded!
The Institute received a prize "Konfederatka - Employer's Friend". That distinction was awarded for extremely wide and diverse offer of research and development works and activities favorable to commercialization of knowledge and taking up the most difficult problems and seeking the best solutions stimulating innovativeness of Polish economy.
IBS Working Papers
A new section was created on our sites - IBS Working Papers. Feel free to familiarize yourself with the studies prepared by our experts.
Employment in Poland 2007
Report "Employment in Poland 2007", prepared in cooperation with Department of Economic Analyses and Forecasts of the Ministry of Labour and Social Policy, is available on our sites.
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